We know that inventory predicts prices.
Last week, we showed that once national housing supply exceeds 5.8 months, prices begin to fall—typically with a 9-month delay.
But national models only go so far. Most housing professionals—whether investors, developers, or brokers—don’t operate in “the U.S. market.” They operate in specific cities, where dynamics can be wildly different.
Can inventory still predict price movements at the local level?
It turns out, yes—but modeling the relationship at sub-national level—as we do here, across the largest 60 cities—requires a different approach.
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