Our Research

Types of Analysis

Topic

Date Range

Why do People Leave New York City?

Can New York Grow Again?

New York City is hemorrhaging population at a pace not seen since the 1970s—and the exodus shows no signs of abating. The departures are not, as conventional wisdom holds, struggling families priced out by unaffordable housing: they are young, well-educated professionals earning 13% more than their peers who stay. From hedge fund analysts decamping to Stamford to lawyers heading to Washington, the data reveals a city losing precisely the human capital it needs most. This is the first installment of a rigorous, data-driven examination of who is leaving, where they're going, and what it portends for the future of America's preeminent metropolis.

The Housing Hangover has Cleared

Part of the reason volumes have been so low is that there was a surge of activity during the pandemic. With record low mortgage rates, newfound work mobility, and the need for more domestic space, millions of people changed their living situation in 2020-21. It's hardly surprising that we've had a fallow period—a housing hangover—after the frenzy. The good news is that 85% of the excess activity from 2020-21 has now been swallowed by the last few years of market quietude. There are nascent signs demand is returning to more typical levels.

The Politics of Housing: Rent Freezes and the 50-year Mortgage

Our analysis of The American National Election Studies data shows renters lean decisively left, while homeowners lean right. Recent proposals—Mamdani's rent freeze and Trump's 50 year mortgage—speak to this divide. Unfortunately, neither will meaningfully address housing affordability, which is rooted in income inequality.

Monitoring Employment for Home Price Cues

Income growth is among the strongest and most consistent predictors of home price appreciation. But incomes are hard to measure at a geographically granular level and at high frequency. Instead, we think investors should focus on employment—a useful proxy for the "wage bill". The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides state, MSA, and county-level employment data every month.

Geographic Diversity isn’t a Policy Failure

How Would A Recession Cascade through Real Estate?

Architects: Heed the Construction Slump

What do historical patterns in employment across major categories of housing and non-residential construction imply about the outlook for Architecture?

Is the Housing Market Stabilizing?

We use DynamicTables to investigate whether home inventory—and prices—are stabilizing.

Our National 5 Year Home Price Forecast

Home Economics projects national home price appreciation of 1.6% in 2026, placing our forecast in the 15th percentile of historical outcomes and 31st percentile relative to panel economists. Over the full five-year forecast horizon (2025-2029), we expect cumulative appreciation of just 8.9%—a figure that falls in the 13th percentile of all historical five-year periods since 1975 and dramatically below the panel consensus of approximately 20%.

Searching for Coastal Bargains

Whether driven by practical retirement planning or pure voyeuristic curiosity about the ultra-wealthy's seaside compounds, we've mapped out the entire spectrum of American coastal real estate—from the surprisingly affordable to the astronomically expensive.

Credit Drove 125 Year of Homeownership Gains

Using over 100 million household records from census microdata and quarterly housing surveys, we trace American homeownership from 47% in 1900 to its peak of 69% in 2004, and back down to 65% today. The major jumps in homeownership have come not from building more homes, but from financial engineering—making mortgages cheaper and more accessible to marginal borrowers.

If mortgage rates fall, what will happen to inventory?

The relationship between declining mortgage rates and housing inventory remains contentious among market analysts. While some argue that lower rates release supply by reducing lock-in effects, others contend that surging demand will dominate any increase in listings. Our analysis of seven rate-decline regimes since 1982 reveals an unexpectedly complex pattern. The correlation between rates and inventory proves significant only during periods of economic weakness—and even then, the directional relationship varies unpredictably across episodes.

Inventory Warning Signs for 6 Cities

Inventory levels are a powerful predictor of home prices—but only if you know where, and over what time frame, to look. This analysis models the relationship across U.S. cities, uncovering a sweet spot: a 26-month change in inventory offers the strongest signal. We use that to identify which metros are most at risk of falling prices in the year ahead.

When Should We Worry About Rising Inventory?

Inventory is rising—and nearing levels that, according to our model, tend to lead to falling home prices. We use months of supply as our measure of inventory, and estimate that prices begin to decline about 9 months after inventory crosses a threshold of 5.8 months. We're not there yet—but we’re close.

Using Income Changes to Forecast Home Prices by County

We use the strong association between income growth and home price appreciation to identify counties that are under and overvalued.

Pricing Amenities—A Case Study: In-unit Laundry in New York City Rentals

In this case study, we apply a hedonic pricing model to estimate the value of in-unit laundry in rental apartments on the Upper West Side of New York City. Our analysis finds that apartments with in-unit laundry rent for approximately 15% more than comparable units without. This premium suggests that investing in laundry facilities could yield substantial returns for landlords and developers.

Fifty Shades of Growth

America is experiencing a demographic transformation that varies dramatically by state. Our analysis reveals a country increasingly divided not just politically, but demographically—with profound implications for investment, development, and the distribution of economic opportunity.

Booming Houston

Houston is now the fastest growing city in the U.S., outpacing other Sunbelt cities like Phoenix and Atlanta. While international migration plays a key role, Houston notably avoids the domestic out-migration seen in cities such as Chicago and Miami. The demographics of new residents range from young professionals to families seeking affordable housing, highlighting complex migration patterns.

Why is Housing so Expensive?

YIMBYs are riding a wave of policy momentum, as zoning reforms and other tools become increasingly popular tools to address housing affordability. The logic behind these measures is appealing: boosting housing supply should help tame rising prices. But while rezoning can inject new housing stock into urban centers, evidence suggests local income levels are a more significant driver of housing prices than supply. An analysis of household income versus home prices across counties confirms a robust correlation.

Canadian Snowbirds are Selling

The attractiveness for Canadians to own homes in the United States has been declining for a number of reasons: a weakening Canadian dollar and steeper insurance, for example. The recent political turmoil has been the final straw, pushing many Canadians to sell their US properties. Florida is the epicenter of this trend.

Is Florida’s Downturn Coming for the Rest of the Country?

Florida is not the only state to see home prices below their peak—but it is the only one where prices are still falling—and fast. The state has been buffeted by idiosyncratic factors, like widespread assessments following a building collapse in 2021. But not all of the reasons prices are falling in Florida are unique. Does price action there presage a wider, national downturn?

Deporting Undocumented Workers Will Make Housing More Expensive

If President Trump makes good on his promise to deport millions of undocumented workers, homes will become substantially more expensive.

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