This is a guest post by Kristin Slavin. Kristin is the Founder of Conifer Advising, a mass timber consultancy dedicated to driving systemic change. She partners with government agencies, institutions, and industry professionals to overcome critical barriers to mass timber adoption.
I am an architect, but I’ve spent the majority of my career trying to break out of that narrow lane. I’ve gained experience in development, construction, and manufacturing. Even so, I was surprised at how much I learned from the Home Economics JobsWatch tool about how economic cycles have historically played out across these industries, and what this means for the future of my sector.
I graduated in 2010, while Portland, OR, was still in the grips of the 2008 recession. I learned quickly that economic cycles have more influence over our careers than many of us would like to admit.
Until now, my understanding was based on personal anecdotes—subjective, location-specific views. But the JobsWatch tool from Home Economics allows me to test these beliefs against empirical data.
This data-driven approach helps me situate the current economic reality for architects, offering a stronger grip on what the future holds and how we can proactively prepare for it.
Are the Rumors True?
Experiencing layoffs in the first year or two of my career led me to ask other architects, “Why me, why now, and are other AEC (Architecture, Engineering, and Construction) disciplines getting hit this hard?”
What I heard over and over again was that it isn’t personal, but Architects are the proverbial canaries in the coal mine: we are the first ones hired for a project, and our scope decreases significantly during construction. It follows that we would be the first to experience layoffs in a downturn. New projects don’t start, but already funded ones try to get through construction with as little scar tissue as possible.
Based on the data, however, Architects are in fact not the leading indicators of a recession.
The rest of this article shows historical patterns in employment for key housing and non residential sectors. Kristin also hypothesizes about what the most recent data, in light of these historical patterns, suggests about the outlook for the Architecture industry.
The rest of this article is exclusively for paying clients of Home Economics.
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