America is experiencing a demographic transformation that varies dramatically by state. Our analysis reveals a country increasingly divided not just politically, but demographically—with profound implications for investment, development, and the distribution of economic opportunity.
Birth and Death Rates by State
Boom belts: Texas, Utah
“Boom Belts”—our name for the states that dominate the top right quadrant of the schematic shown below (Figure 2)—are where birth rates are high and death rates are low.
Propelled by a culture that encourages early marriage and big families, Utah leads the nation with both the highest birth rate (13.2 per 1,000) and lowest death rate (6.3 per 1,000), creating an impressive natural population increase of 6.9 per 1,000 residents.
“We marry earlier, tend to stay married, have kids earlier and have more of them,” explains Pam Perlich, a University of Utah economist. This pattern extends to metropolitan areas like Provo-Orem-Lehi, which shows an extraordinary natural increase of 12.0 per 1,000—the highest among all major metro areas in the country.