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America is experiencing a demographic transformation that varies dramatically by state. Our analysis reveals a country increasingly divided not just politically, but demographically—with profound implications for investment, development, and the distribution of economic opportunity.
Houston is now the fastest growing city in the U.S., outpacing other Sunbelt cities like Phoenix and Atlanta. While international migration plays a key role, Houston notably avoids the domestic out-migration seen in cities such as Chicago and Miami. The demographics of new residents range from young professionals to families seeking affordable housing, highlighting complex migration patterns.
YIMBYs are riding a wave of policy momentum, as zoning reforms and other tools become increasingly popular tools to address housing affordability. The logic behind these measures is appealing: boosting housing supply should help tame rising prices. But while rezoning can inject new housing stock into urban centers, evidence suggests local income levels are a more significant driver of housing prices than supply. An analysis of household income versus home prices across counties confirms a robust correlation.
The attractiveness for Canadians to own homes in the United States has been declining for a number of reasons: a weakening Canadian dollar and steeper insurance, for example. The recent political turmoil has been the final straw, pushing many Canadians to sell their US properties. Florida is the epicenter of this trend.
Florida is not the only state to see home prices below their peak—but it is the only one where prices are still falling—and fast. The state has been buffeted by idiosyncratic factors, like widespread assessments following a building collapse in 2021. But not all of the reasons prices are falling in Florida are unique. Does price action there presage a wider, national downturn?

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